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>Modeling and Propagation in Infrastructure

Uncertainty Modeling and Propagation in Infrastructure Analysis

Infrastructure are often modeled using a set of nested models for the individual infrastructure components. Each model introduces significant uncertainties (e.g., in the model parameters, model errors, and inputs). How does the uncertainty propagate to/among models so that we can assess the degree of uncertainty in the final results used by decision-makers? What are the best ways to communicate this uncertainty to decision-makers and stakeholders?